Deluge in Texas
Human-caused warming is creating the conditions for more frequent and severe rain storms
Yesterday morning at 1:30 Elinor Lester, age 13, and her cabin mates were awakened by a raging storm. The campers were attending the Camp Mystic Christian Camp along the Guadalupe River in central Texas. In places the river rose 20 feet over a one hour period. As floodwaters whipped around their calves and knees, the girls held onto a rope that rescuers strung across a bridge.
A helicopter landed and started taking people away. The camp was completely destroyed. At this hour 20 people at the camp are missing.
Twenty-seven people have been killed by the storms. The National Weather Service predicts that the flooded areas of Texas could get 2 to 5 more inches of rain today (Saturday).
Even in places like central Texas, with a long history of floods, human-caused warming is creating the conditions for more frequent and severe rain storms. Warm air holds more moisture than cool air, and as temperatures rise, storms can produce bigger deluges. In areas with inadequate warning systems or outdated infrastructure the results can be catastrophic.
To understand patterns of heavy rain at a more local level, communities and officials rely on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The agency publishes estimates of the probabilities of a certain number of inches falling in a particular location over a given amount of time. Local officials use these estimates to design infrastructure like storm drains and culverts and to guide development and regulations in flood-prone areas.
The Trump administration has reduced staff at NOAA and at the National Weather Service which it houses. Hundreds of experts who had been compiling the next version of the National Climate Assessment have been dismissed. Among the deep cuts in the proposed 2026 NOAA budget is the elimination of the office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which conducts and coordinates climate research.
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Addendum Jul 5, 2025
The National Weather Service’s local San Angelo office, which is responsible for some of the areas hit hardest by the flooding, is missing a senior hydrologist, staff forecaster and meteorologist in charge. Vacancies at the San Antonio office, which covers other areas hit by the floods, included a warning coordination meteorologist and science officer. Unfilled positions made it harder to coordinate with local officials because each Weather Service office works as a team. The vacancy rate is roughly double what it was when President Trump returned to office six months ago.